Let me make this clear- I am thrilled about the announcement last Thursday. It was more than most of us could have possibly hoped. Even with the concern over 3rd party apps running in the background last Thursday was good news on top of good news.

The more I have thought about it, though, the more concern I have in one area– the 3G iPhone. Something tells me we won’t be seeing it for a whole lot longer than we expected. And here’s why…

My thinking goes like this-

Apple has, as I have written previously, once again shown itself to be among the most cunning of companies whose savvy is seen not only in its fantastic, user-friendly devices but in its timing. And the timetable just shifted in a big way.

My old thinking went like this-

1. Apple releases the SDK and 3rd Party apps, breathing new life into an almost year-old device and creating a new wave of new iPhone users.

2. iPhone early adopters find they need increased space for the new functionality and upgrade to the 16gb iPhone.

3. Apple releases the 3G iPhone and prompts both an upgrade frenzy and a new crop of iPhone converts.

That, however, did not take into account the possibility of 3rd party applications not arriving until JUNE and this new timeframe changes everything.

Why? Because last week’s “Roadmap” wasn’t a roadmap for the SDK, it was a roadmap for the next year to year and a half in the life-cycle of the iPhone. And this roadmap pushes back the release of the 3G iPhone by some, if not many, months.

Think about it-
when he said that MS Exchange would come in “the next update”, El Stevo pretty much admitted that there will be NOTHING NEW coming to the iPhone until the June release of the new apps developed with the SDK.

That means March, April, May and, (I suspect the better part of) June will be filled with “3rd Party App Anticipation” and nothing more.

During this time those of us using the iPhone will get more and more excited about “App Day”. At the same time, an increasing number of prior holdouts will see the light and travel to iPhone-land. GottaBeMobile’s Sierra Modro jumped just this weekend and her use of the word “succumbed” says it all.

Then, in June, when “App Day” finally arrives the tech world will be all a buzz.

Yes, a year and a half after the iPhone was first announced it will be the only thing talked about in the tech world during the weeks leading into the summer. A brand new iPhone will be born using the old hardware. Everyone will be excited. “Old” users will fall all over their “new” toy and EVEN MORE holdouts will make their way to the (best damn) phone.

Now you tell me, why would Apple, who clearly controls the release and update flow of their products better than any other company, undermine their golden opportunity to sell even more 1st Generation iPhones? They won’t. They’ll ride the wave for as long as they can. And that wave will wash us right into fall.

And that means only one thing-

I firmly believe we will not see a 3G iPhone until LATE FALL at the earliest.

In fact, I would lay odd that the 3G iPhone will be the “Big Announcement” at MacWorld next year.

I hope I am wrong but in case I’m not might I suggest you getting a new case or a clear protector for your iPhone.

Something tells me we’ll be using them for a bit longer than we expected.

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