Image Source: http://epistemysics.wordpress.com/2009/05/ Our friend Doug over at JAMM took a different tack with predictions for this new year “ writing a post looking back at the events of 2010 with a post written as if reflecting on it on January 1, 2011. The post recaps events in the mobile arena and how the fortunes […]
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Oops – That Crystal Ball Needs Polishing

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Image Source: http://epistemysics.wordpress.com/2009/05/

Our friend Doug over at JAMM took a different tack with predictions for this new year “ writing a post looking back at the events of 2010 with a post written as if reflecting on it on January 1, 2011.

The post recaps events in the mobile arena and how the fortunes of various mobile leaders have gone during the year.  It sees uncertain futures for Palm and Windows Mobile, which strikes me as about right; and growing success for the Android platform, which also seems reasonable enough.  Here ‘s the part where I think the crystal ball may have been clouding over for Doug and his team:

Speaking of the iPhone, what is going on there?  Sure, Apple released a new version of the iPhone, aptly names iPhone 4.  And sure, the stalwarts all flocked to upgrade, but the murmur which accompanied iPhone 3 became a dull roar of dissatisfaction.  More and more, users demanded more from their phones, and more and more Apple stumbled and balked upon delivery.

I ‘m not sure what murmur of dissatisfaction is being referred to there.  As far as I ‘m aware the iPhone continued to lap the field in every customer satisfaction survey done in 2009.  Sure there has been plenty of displeasure with AT&T expressed, but that ‘s not the same thing as the iPhone platform as a whole “ not by a longshot. 

I believe the iPhone ‘s market share has continued to grow throughout the year, and that the numbers of iPhone sold each quarter has been more than impressive.  I ‘m not seeing where there ‘s been any dissatisfaction, or any major stumbling or balking ‘upon delivery ‘.

To be fair, Doug has been one to bet against the iPhone right from the word go, and I have been one to bet the house on it right from the off “ so it ‘s no surprise that our thoughts on the platform ‘s prospects for 2010 are pretty much polar opposites.

I ‘d say for every stumble (say App Store review policies) Apple has made, they ‘ve made large strides forward that more than compensate.  They ‘ve provided a set of devices (those that run iPhone OS) and a platform that has transformed the smartphone and cellphone marketplace and been a true gamechanger in the mobile arena. 

I don ‘t expect the iPhone platform ‘s momentum to decrease at all in the coming year.  I think the next gen iPhone and iPod Touches, and the continuing power of the App Store, will keep the platform pushing ahead just as it did in 2009.  Oh, and if we see an Apple tablet type device capable of running iPhone OS apps, then all bets are off “ and the growth of the platform will move to an even higher level.

Doug and I should probably find a fun way of wagering on some of this stuff at some point.  If you read this Doug, let me know what you reckon.  Can we pick a set of criteria to measure the iPhone ‘s success in 2010 by, and then make a little bet?  Loser has to do a post on the other guy ‘s site explaining the key reasons why the platform stumbled / did not stumble during 2010? 

I ‘m game if you are. πŸ™‚

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