With the announcement Verizon iPhone finally upon us after three years of waiting, it’s time to take a look at what it will mean for Apple and their fiercest competitor, Google. Analysts, members of the media, tech bloggers, and fans have all given their opinions on this subject ad-nauseaum. We’ve all seen the polls, reports, and predictions. If you’ve read either of my articles on analysts reports (here and here) on smartphone sales, then you know that I think 99.999999999% of those types of reports are worthless and meaningless drivel. Most of them are centered on one set of data in a market ultimately made of many different types of devices, and some reports are just flat out skewed in one direction or another by people with agenda in mind. Thankfully, all of those polls, reports, and opinions that I just mentioned mean absolutely nothing starting tomorrow. They aren’t worth the digital bytes they’re made of. Throw them out the window and forget about them.
So, starting from a clean slate, what’s going to happen when the Verizon iPhone hits the market in a month or so? What will it mean for the connected device market that Apple and Google seem to be running away with? For Android vs iOS long-term? I think those are more complex questions than most analysts and media members have led us to believe. Let’s take a look at some of the factors that will play into people’s decisions.
The Writing on the Wall
AT&T has obviously seen this move from Apple coming for a while now. Whether Apple gave them warning, or they just knew it was coming, we’ve all seen AT&T’s pre-release maneuvers over the last six months, and it is obvious that they have been bracing for impact. First, they let more people upgrade to the iPhone 4 early this time around to get those customers locked into new two-year contracts. Then they jacked up the ETF for smartphones, including the iPhone, to keep more of those customers from jumping ship.
We’ve seen many polls and reports about how many AT&T customers are going to leave for Verizon as soon as the new iPhone hits, and some of them have predicted a significant negative impact. Many iOS bloggers go even further, and believe that this release will immediately spell doom and gloom for Google and Android. I’m a little hesitant to go that far. Why? It’s a lot easier to tell a poller that you will switch to Verizon on day one of the Big Red iPhone release. It is quite another matter when that $350 ETF is staring you in the face. How many people who upgraded to the iPhone 4 just a few months ago are going to pony up that cash, and then turn around and put down another $200+ on a new Verizon iPhone? $550 is worth a lot of pause in my book.
The War at Home
While AT&T customers who want to move to Verizon will eventually have their chance, even if it takes a year or two for the full impact of this exodus to be felt, the impact on Verizon could be much more immediate. This is still a bit of an unknown as well, because they have been pushing so many Android phones out to their smartphone customers over the last year. It will be interesting to see how saturated the Verizon smartphone market is. Will people who wanted the iPhone, but wouldn’t switch to AT&T and got tired of waiting dump Android now that the iPhone is an option? Will Apple and Verizon sweeten the pot with an “intermediate upgrade” price similar to what is available on AT&T for those who aren’t up for contract renewal? For those who have made a significant investment in Android Market apps, will they be willing to leave them behind and pay for iOS App Store replacements, especially if they have grown fond of their little Green Robot machine while waiting on Apple?
The Meaning Of It All
To me, the Verizon iPhone is an incredibly significant release, and it absolutely essential for Apple’s continued success in the market. Apple quickly pushed Blackberry aside once the iPhone 3G was released on AT&T, and they pretty much made the network their own little smartphone playground. That time has now come to an end. While sales may not have been spectacular, AT&T recently got behind the launches of both Windows Phone and the Blackberry Torch with big advertising pushes. Last week at CES, we learned that several new Android phones are now coming to AT&T this year. While Android has had a presence on the network for a while with the HTC Aria, Motorola Blur, and Samsung Captivate, it has been paltry compared to the huge selection of devices on each of the other three major carriers. Now that presence is growing, and the iPhone will have to go head to head with more worthy competitors where it once had free reign.
When you combine the changing landscape of AT&T’s smartphone lineup and the iPhone’s arrival on Verizon, you get what we have all been waiting for. The showdown between iOS and Android finally begins in earnest. Analysts have been talking about this battle for a while and making claims on who has the upper hand, but only now are we really going to see the picture truly take shape. This is HUGE. Finally. This year, we will start to get an idea of which types of consumers prefer iOS or Android when they actually have a real, viable choice on either of the top two carriers. By next year, there should be enough data to draw some hard conclusions about who really has the upper hand in the smartphone space, and that is critical going forward.
Rubbing the Lamp
As much as I have criticized analysts and their undercooked pronouncements based on limited data, I’m not about to jump off the same bridge. I do think that the iPhone is going to be hugely successful on Verizon initially. However, it will be interesting to see how the smartphone savy Verizon crowd that has been conditioned to the constant flood of new Android devices reacts in the longer term. How will the iPhone sell when the next round of new and improved Android phones hits the market? And then the next? There will probably be two big waves of phones that come out after the iPhone, which if it is speced the same as the current AT&T model, is already well into its current lifecycle. Will the Verizon iPhone sales begin to dip when it is on the shelf next to a device that is newer, has more bells and whistles, and is the same price? Many iOS fans completely dismiss this possibility, but I can’t do that until we see the data from the rest of this year.
Now, if the iPhone sales stay steady throughout the year, or even trend upward until the next generation is near, then that would be pretty significant. I think it would be very worrisome for Google, as it may mean that mainstream customers are ultimately more attracted to the holistic ecosystem, polish and appeal of Apple than they are the specs, features and flexibility of Android. However, only time and real live sales based on real live customer decisions will tell this tale.
So, what’s my prediction? This year is going to be a lot of fun for those of us who love smartphones and mobile technology. You can take that prediction to the bank.
Maybe my prediction isn’t so revolutionary. What about yours? I and the iSource staff would love to hear it. Feel free to leave a comment with yours predictions for the Verizon iPhone and its impact below, or join the discussion in our forums here.
Continue reading:
- Everything New Apple Just Announced (Septembe
- Apple Watch Pre-Order
- Apple Research Kit launches with 5 Apps
- Apple TV now only $69
TAGS: Apple, AT&T, Impact of the Verizon iPhone, iPhone 4, Steve Jobs, Verizon, Verizon iPhone
