Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has published research (via MacRumors), and predicts that Apple will sell between 6 to 10 million iPhone 5 units on launch weekend. A mid-range number of 8 million units was used for modeling purposes. This report was based off of the pre-order numbers Apple saw, and the iPhone 4S’ performance last year.
In fact, last year Apple announced that the iPhone 4S surpassed one million units pre-ordered in the first 24 hours. Over four million iPhone 4S units were sold during launch weekend.
Lastly Munster mentions the fact that Apple’s fiscal Q4 of 2012 is coming to a close at the end of this month. Apple is currently reporting 2-3 week ship times for new iPhone 5 orders. This means that some of the revenue collected during this window between pre-orders and launch may be included in fiscal Q1 for 2013, as Apple recognizes the revenue as orders placed now ship next month, after the September deadline.
In short, expect two great quarters from Apple.
Chart courtesy of Gene Munster.