The other issue in play here is gaming. If Apple intends to make a move toward the console/big screen gaming space, they will have to go through something to get there. It will have to be either the Apple TV, an Apple branded HD set, or through AirPlay licensed to TV manufacturers. While AirPlay probably makes the most sense, Apple doesn’t always play so well with others, so I have some doubts on whether they will go this route. Apple TV is nice, but it just isn’t that compelling a device as it stands right now. If Apple is really looking to getma stranglehold on the digital living room, then the HD set that integrates all of your iTunes content together is the way to go. The fact that their main competitor is already taking this approach might add some extra incentive, as well.

In the end, I think your analysis of the situation is rock solid Alex. Apple’s past practices would indicate that they would pass on getting involved in the HDTV business. However, I just think there are some extenuating reasons why they might bend their normal operating practices to get a foot into what may be one of the last big frontiers of the connected device space. We’ll probably find out soon, either way. If Apple is getting involved in this market, it will need to be soon, as they will need to head off Google TV, and the many other proprietary Internet services and apps being included in many HDTVs, BlueRay players, and other set top boxes these days. They are already a bit behind the point where they would normally enter and revolutinze a market at this point.