Let me start by saying that I have no insider information. I have no contacts within Apple or any of their production partners or suppliers. What follows is purely speculation on my part. There have been plenty of claims regarding the next-generation iPad and I want to lay out what I believe we will see when it’s released.
The Hardware
The most noise regarding the new iPad has come in the form of speculation regarding the device’s display. Many believe, myself included, that the device will be equipped with a ultra-high resolution “Retina” display similar in resolution to the displays shipping on Apple’s iPhone and iPod touch devices. If Apple doubles the resolution of the current iPad displays, the new iPad would carry 2048×1536 pixels. This would lead to crisp images, and print-quality text.
To drive this new pixel-dense display, more horsepower is needed, and there is plenty of speculation regarding that as well. Many recent reports are claiming that the new iPad will sport a quad-core processor, and based on Apple’s current chip-naming scheme, it will be called the A6. One recent report suggested that, while using Imagination Technologies latest design, the new iPad will have graphics capabilities 20x the processors currently shipping in iOS devices. Here again, I tend to agree. That many pixels, regardless of screen size, requires significant processing power to work at the speeds Apple expects. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple also threw in 1GB of RAM (up from 512MB shipping in the iPad 2) to help things along on the speed and performance side of things.
Other rumors suggest that the new device will come equipped with two improved cameras. Specifically, one report claims that the front-facing camera will be upgraded to a “FaceTime HD” camera, similar to the ones found on currently-shipping MacBook Pros, iMacs, and Thunderbolt displays. It’s also expected that the rear-facing camera will see an upgrade, bringing it to a quality level similar to the iPhone 4S’ 8MP camera. Yet again, I tend to agree. If they can squeeze a very nice camera sensor and lens system into the iPhone 4S’ much smaller package, then they should be able to squeeze this same technology into the new iPad.
Some reports note that the new iPad will ship with 4G LTE cellular technology. The major cellular carriers in the United States are scrambling to deploy these new, faster networks, with Verizon leading the way, and hoping to have the upgrade complete by the end of next year. It seems reasonable on the surface to assume that Apple would be ready to adopt this technology. In fact, the latest report claims that Apple will first introduce LTE support in the next-generation iPad due to the device’s larger battery that could accommodate the power-hungry technology. This doesn’t sound unreasonable to me, but I’m still going to doubt that it happens. If it’s a significant power hog, even with the iPad’s larger battery, Apple won’t include it. They will only include it if their design, manufacturing logistics, and technology will comfortably support it. That’s just how Apple works. This is a big “Maybe”.
The Design
That leads me to the actual physical, exterior design of the device itself. Some reports have claimed the new iPad will be thicker to better accommodate the internals, other reports claim it will be thinner, while others claim it will look very similar to the iPad 2. Personally, I do not believe Apple would make the design concession in the form of a thinner body of the iPad 2 a year in advance, when they were working on this model simultaneously. That is, Apple does not work on one model at a time. While work is being wrapped up on the soon-to-be-released model, they are working away on a device that won’t see the light of day for several years. Apple did not just complete work on the iPad 2, and got to work on the iPad 3. These projects were ongoing at different stages at the same time. This means they were well aware of what would be going into the iPad 3, and could have an idea if it would fit into an envelope at least the size of an iPad 2.
With that logic backing me up, I believe the next-generation iPad will either look the same as the iPad 2, or possibly, even thinner. Apple does not introduce new designs for the sake of fashion. If they can squeeze more into a thinner package, they will do it. If they can’t, they won’t. It’s really that simple. That’s why you don’t see a change in the design of, say, their desktop computers every time they get a processor upgrade. It’s a form and function problem, and Apple likes to excel at both. They will not make a huge design concession until the market, and functionality can support it. That’s why it would not surprise me if the new iPad looked nearly identical to the sleek iPad 2. Apple will wait until technology allows them to cram more into a smaller package. Until then, you are going to be looking at the same great design that the current technology allows.
This is also the same reason I believe the iPhone has a pattern of sticking to a certain design for two generations. It’s a design trade-off. With Moore’s law still pretty well holding true, technology is allowing Apple to make their devices smaller every two years. If that law were suddenly to slow down to, say, three years, it wouldn’t surprise me if Apple stuck with the iPhone 4/4S body design for another year, if not more. I will cop out here and say that I could totally be wrong, but I really can’t see them making this concession. If they do, I’ll be surprised.
Other Odds and Ends
Just as a hunch on my part, I believe the new Retina displays could be a costly addition to the iPad. That is why I would not be surprised if Apple continues to sell the iPad 2, at a slightly discounted price ($399 as a guess) alongside the new iPad. Besides, Apple is now facing brisk competition in the market they created and dominate, by the likes of Amazon with their much lower-priced Kindle Fire. The barrier to entry in the tablet market is dropping, and Apple, if they want to maintain a large portion of it, will need to adjust accordingly. That said, Apple has never chased market share. They go after profit share– the perfect example once again being the iPhone. They do not sell the most smartphones, but they lead the industry in profits from them.
At present, there will not be a major new version of iOS shipping with the iPad 3. Apple has not released a build to developers, and the iPad traditionally has not been released in sync with Apple’s software schedule. I would expect the new version of iOS to make a splash at WWDC and be released in the fall, much like it was in 2011.
I also firmly believe that the next-generation iPad will support smart covers in some form or fashion, especially if the exterior design remains the same as the iPad 2. I do not believe that Apple is the kind of company that would nickel and dime someone into buying new peripherals for a device simply on a whim. That’s not where Apple makes a lot of money (by their standards). I believe Smart Covers are hear to stay simply because of the way Apple played them up at the iPad 2 introduction. The market seems to like them as well, which doesn’t hurt.
I do not believe we will see a new size of the iPad introduced this year (if ever), especially a 7-inch model. Again, Apple vets their designs internally, and according to the late Steve Jobs, they found that a smaller screen was less than optimal. I can only see Apple going larger with the iPad and not smaller, and I cannot see that happening any time soon simply due to the cost and difficulty in manufacturing displays (especially Retina displays) for the device.
Conclusion
In summary, I believe that the next-generation iPad will come equipped with a high-resolution Retina display, a quad-core processor, and improved cameras. I am uncertain regarding the inclusion of LTE technology or what the device itself might look like. I do not believe that Apple will introduce a smaller iPad, or any new software with the device other than perhaps, device-specific or App Store applications (like Garageband for iPad). My gut is telling me this will be a nice upgrade for someone who does not currently own an iPad, or someone like me who owns a first generation model. Anyone with an iPad 2 will be content. I am thinking of a scenario similar to 2011’s iPhone 4S rollout– an awesome point to jump into the tablet market if you do not already own an iPad.
I plan to write another post regarding the next-generation iPad closer to the expected launch date.
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TAGS: ipad 3, next-generation ipad, quad-core, retina display
